Housing Starts and Sales Up Year Over Year, Inventories Continue Decline

[Ted S.]

Something to end the heated politics in the forum...WORK...things are coming around, it's just a matter of time. If we can put aside the emotional baggage of being underpaid for a half a decade, I think there is some good business ahead:

"While recent housing data releases suggest the rate of market improvement has slowed temporarily, long-run trends continue to be positive. And this general picture is consistent with NAHB’s forecast of the housing market: continued monthly ups and downs, but a general improving trend for construction and sales activity............................In March, the inventory of new homes fell to a record low of 144,000 units. At the current sales rate, this equals a 5.3 months-supply. At recent inventory levels, the supply of newly constructed homes is so low that even moderate increases in sales should substantially stimulate new construction activity. In fact, of the 144,000 units in inventory, only 48,000 were completed homes ready for sale. This is only, on average and if equally distributed, 14 homes per county.............................This long-run improving trend is consistent with increases in Census reported housing permits, which suggest future growth for home building in 2012. Total permits were up 4.5% in March, while permits for multifamily units were up 21%"

http://nahbenews.com/nahbsys/issues/2012-05-02/5.html

[MarkNov]

Last season we had empty spots at my sailing club, for this season we have a waiting list.

It appears that people are willing to spend on frivolous stuff, so kitchen and bath renos can't be far behind.

On my own super micro economic level I am thinking of buying a KLR 650.

Mark

[Allan Edwards]

Ted:

We are almost 4 years into the housing slump, I have no doubt that there is a lot of pent up demand in the market. Our population increases 3 million or so each year, yet we are only producing 1/2 million new homes.

By the way, my business has never been stronger than it is now. We are pretty much maxed given my current staffing, with 7 homes under construction and 3-4 in the pipeline.

Regarding the market, here is an interesting article about Beazer Homes actually buying distressed homes as an investment and creating REIT's.

http://www.builderonline.com/busines...cid=BBU:050412

[jobercian]

Thanks Ted- good stuff. Really painful when you put in the terms of "underpaid for half a decade ....." I would have preferred ".5% of a millennium."

We are seeing some light, though.

Thanks

[Ted S.]

What I think is important is that everyone who was hurt by the recession keep in mind it was not personal; it had very little to do with their competence, etc.

Its just the way the market went. So if we remain positive, and keep working, I believe better days are coming.

When the Bluefish are not running, even the best tackle, finest boat, and most experienced Captain will not land fish.

But when they run, tie a dirty sock to a hook and you will fill the boat.

The Bluefish will run again soon.

[Dick Seibert]

NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. housing market is likely to remain weak and may take a generation or more to rebound, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider on Tuesday.

Shiller, the co-creator of the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said a weak labor market, high gas prices and a general sense of unease among consumers was outweighing low mortgage rates and would likely keep a lid on prices for the foreseeable future.

"I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in our lifetimes," Shiller said.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first uptick in prices in 10 months.

But Shiller called it "a very mixed bag." Nine of the 20 cities recorded falling or flat prices on the month.

He said suburban areas in particular might endure further price declines as high gas prices increase demand for "walkable cities."¹

Allan speaks for Texas, a relatively free state, here in California we'll never see the tract home again, we'll never tear up hayfields, desert, or prune orchards to build homes again, the wealthy will be able to build in the Wildlands-Urban Interface (paying huge affordable housing fees) but most housing will be built in the urban core, it will be built by large non-profit developers utilizing government grants (no private builder can compete with non-profits getting free government money), builders will subcontract from them for the actual construction. It's now virtually impossible to tear an existing home down, many try leaving them empty with the windows and doors open until they deteriorate enough to actually get a demolition permit, but there are activists groups suing them if they catch them.

I would think that remodeling the existing housing stock should boom for those who can't afford to build in the Interface, and do not want to live in the urban core.


¹ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1448857.html

[jobercian]

What I think is important is that everyone who was hurt by the recession keep in mind it was not personal; it had very little to do with their competence, etc.

Its just the way the market went. So if we remain positive, and keep working, I believe better days are coming.

When the Bluefish are not running, even the best tackle, finest boat, and most experienced Captain will not land fish.

But when they run, tie a dirty sock to a hook and you will fill the boat.

The Bluefish will run again soon.

I like your analogy- I definitely take it too personally. Unfortunately it sounds like we don't get much credit when we are doing well (dirty sock filling the boat)

It would be nice if slow times could be attributed to external factors while success could be attributed to factors we control. Naturally there are various permutations possible.

[Lamar Horton]

So who are we to believe? The NAHB or some professor from Yale? Serious question.

[J.Buesking]

I don't think it will ever be like it was in the late 90's to early 2000's.

I remember being 16 and working through the trade school on a framing crew. I'm 30 now. Neighborhoods where getting developed everywhere. Builder's where just fighting over lots because it was guaranteed once you dug the hole the house would be under contract by the time the final coat of paint was done.

It was insane. Being 16 I remember wondering how in the world is their all these people buying this 400k priced homes. Neighborhoods full of them everywhere. Even at such a young age having no real world experience I thought it was to good to be true.

I really think the residential side of the industry will never return to have lots of high paying work. Their's always the few area's of the country that will have high end projects but for the other majority you'll only make a paycheck unless you can keep lot's of guys working. Even then the exposure to income is so high your better off focusing all the entrepreneurship in another sector all together.

[David Meiland]

Even at such a young age having no real world experience I thought it was to good to be true.

Turns out you were right.

[Allan Edwards]

The market is going nuts here now, we actually have a shortage of lots. With practically no new starts in 4 years and a growing population, I knew this was going to happen.

[jimAKAblue]

The market is going nuts here now, we actually have a shortage of lots. With practically no new starts in 4 years and a growing population, I knew this was going to happen.

Maybe y'all might take your business to the Metro Detroit area where you can pick up subdivision lots for ten cents on the dollar!

[parkwest]

In another report I read it said we have over 4 years of of housing inventory of REO's, pre-foreclosure and foreclosed houses along with a 1/3 of houses currently underwater on their mortgages.

Housing will go up when "real" jobs go up. And that will happen when the USG ends it's current WAR on Prosperity.

[Allan Edwards]

Things looking pretty good for Houston and Texas:

http://www.houstontomorrow.org/livab...m_medium=email

The future of sprawl, therefore, is not California. Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta are America’s current capitals of low-density construction. Builders are betting on future growth in the South, in Texas, and in the Southwest, and they’re building single-family homes to meet that demand.

[Jerrald Hayes]

Lets see,…. last summer when I started the topic On Housing Starts Summer of 2011 and you though it was really important to say:

I just completed my strategic planning for 2012, which I do annually, and national stats about housing means very little to me in planning for my company.

But now a year later you write:

Things looking pretty good for Houston and Texas:

http://www.houstontomorrow.org/livab...m_medium=email

But these are all really just meaningless and worthless statistics right?

I am confused.



(well not really.)