Hanley Wood on Colorado Homebuilders

[Ted S.]

I've seen good developers make money in the recession.

[dave_k]

That it is. I started my business during the late 80's downturn and didn't know any better.

Wished I would have listened a little better to those who spoke of the cyclical nature of downturns. There is a lot of opportunity out there if you had a pile of cash to spend and a little patience.

I tried that and it didn't turn out so good.

I was holding cash in the early 90's and when commercial construction ran out of steam around 1992 it looked like residential was starting to pick up so I bought some lots and started to build.

It went well for awhile then we got hit by a double dip when combined with the effect of an austerity plan to get out of government debt and NAFTA made for a devastating recession that lasted most of the decade.

The trouble is you just don't know what's going to happen. I started my career in a recession in 1976 and went through another one in the early 1980's. I thought I knew how recoveries worked but apparently not.

[Kent Brobeck]

I couldn't agree more, you have a handful posting dribble here 10-15 times a day. I had a private exchange with Greg Di and he actually mentioned the same thing as one reason for leaving.

I am losing interest too.

Yeah well what are you doing about it? Your a moderator why don't you moderate?? Go talk to that genius and fix it. People make suggestions and NOTHING happens if you haven't noticed. Gee I thought useless post where suppose to get tossed? Who knows really since there really aren't any rules...

Me thinks JLC is getting ready to open this up to EVERYBODY!! Why else would they do what they are doing...which id drive everybody away. The magazine isn't very good either. FH has managed to put out a better magazine and also get the serious DIY'ers. When my scrip runs out I'm done with it.

[BeachBoy]

I didn't renew my subscription last time, mostly in protest to what was happening on the forums (not that anyone noticed or cared that I didn't renew...)

I dropped off the forums for about four months or so last year when I was very busy and had lost interest but I came back around Christmas when I had some time off. A mistake I guess.

Even though I blocked a few people whose opinions no longer matter to me, there is so much drivel to wade through that it isn't very enjoyable.

Or maybe some of us are just getting old and grouchy, like our fathers.... ;-)

[jimAKAblue]

Or maybe some of us are just getting old and grouchy, like our fathers.... ;-)

That's it in a nutshell.

Nothing lasts forever. I think some of you guys have just been here too long and you want to focus on what you don't like instead of what you do like. There are thousands of threads that you can look into that don't have any thing "offensive (in your opinion)" and yet you continue to open threads that you are not interested in. The only reason I can think that y'all continue to read posts that aggravate you is so you can formulate some basis for a biatchy whine session like a pack of old hens.

The idea that a pol thread, or self promotion or blah, blah, blah, can drive you away from a site that you purportedly enjoy is preposterous at best, and actually very stupid.

Sorry for using such harsh judgment.

One more possibility: you guys can't exercise self control and you are mad at yourself for opening threads that you aren't interested in. Get some counseling.

[jimAKAblue]

Oh yeah...I have another spiffy idea for a sticky. They should put up a sticky thread for calling for censorship. That ought to clean out about 1000 non germane posts out of the forum.

[Overbuilders]

Jim, you have my blessing to wax driftly in this here thread.

BTW, there are several openings for homebuilder in Colorado, if you can get financing. Colorado seems to be faring better than a lot of states. Anecdotally, an upscale neighborhood a stone's throw to the east of my subdivision, which was abandoned about three years ago after one lone house was built, has been resurrected and several new homes have been built and occupied. And, I counted three additional foundation holes excavated while driving by.

I am enjoying my new part time gig in commercial, however. It's nice to be able to diversify when the opportunity presents itself.

[jimAKAblue]

Richie, I don't remember what this thread is about LOL.

Regarding Colorado. I don't know much about it but isn't that one of the states that is overregulated i.e. hard to get permits etc?

[Overbuilders]

Regarding Colorado. I don't know much about it but isn't that one of the states that is overregulated i.e. hard to get permits etc?

No, not at all. Very, very contractor friendly here. And especially if we don't import too many Californians. The hardest part is remembering the subtle differences in protocol concerning the numerous AHJs when calling in and executing inspections.

[Allan Edwards]

"Nearly 80 percent of the almost 3,000 homebuilders that were operating in Colorado in 2006 have failed, left the state or abandoned new-home construction."

http://business-news.thestreet.com/d...down-80-2006/1

In my opinion the housing recession is over for builders, and I predicted that builders who survived would do very well. Yes there was a large shakeout, meaning many builders have gone bust or quit, meaning those who did remain will do very well. I am seeing signs in many markets that there are shortages of labor, increase in building material prices, shortage of lots. We are at capacity right now (7 homes under construction) with people knocking on our doors who want to build.

And credit is finally loosening too.

[jimAKAblue]

Allan, I don't think the recession is over for all builders. Texas is doing much better than other states. The builders in MI are seeing a slight uptick.

[Dick Seibert]

You Texans can expect a lot more well-to-do Californians to show, the California Trucking Association says the new Cap & Trade will run diesel up to $6.99 a gallon!

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- California clean fuel directives will lead to significant job losses for the state and drive up diesel prices at the pump to around $6.69 per gallon, according to a study just released by the California Trucking Association (CTA).

The study, "The Impact of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard & Cap-and-Trade Programs on California Retail Diesel Prices," prepared by Bethesda, Md.-based consultants Stonebridge Associates Inc., examined the effect of California's new low-carbon fuel and cap-and-trade emissions initiatives on the state's retail diesel future.

By 2020, the two programs combined could increase the price of diesel fuel by $2.22 per gallon, the report said. That would represent more than a 50% increase in the price of diesel and a shocking $6.69 per gallon at the pump. The average price difference between California and neighboring states would be $2.33 per gallon, when accounting for taxes.

According to the study, between 2015 and 2020, the higher costs of "California-only" diesel will cause the loss of nearly 617,000 jobs in the containerized import sector, $68.5 billion in lost state domestic product, $21.7 billion in lost income and $5.3 billion in lost state and local taxes.

California's transportation and logistics industry is responsible for almost 14% of the state's economy and is an important source of employment in the state. The study said that a "California-only" diesel price caused will put California's transportation sector at a significant competitive disadvantage.

"State regulators need to step down from their 'ivory tower' and understand the impact of these unfair policies on California truckers," Blevins added. CARB's "blind pursuit" of such policies will drive many California-based trucking companies out of state or out of business.

The report said such diesel price increases will cast an even wider net affecting food, fuel, clothing and other essential services transported by trucks.¹

¹ http://www.cspnet.com/news/fuels/art...igh-cost-state