Are you a subscriber but don’t have an online account?

Register for full online access.

 
 
 
 
+ Reply to Thread
Results 1 to 5 of 5
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    4,894

    Default Some good news from NAHB

    New-Home Sales Rise 2.4 Percent In July

    August 26, 2008 - Sales of newly built single-family homes rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units in July, the Commerce Department reported today. The report also indicated continuing contraction in the number of new-homes for sale as builders keep a tight rein on inventories to help restore better balance between market supply and demand.

    “With 15 consecutive months of reductions in the number of new homes for sale, builders are clearly doing a good job of chipping away at their inventories,” noted Sandy Dunn, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “Now that the government has also done its part by passing a much-needed housing stimulus package, we are looking forward to positive effects on new-home sales in the near future.”

    “While the improvement in new-home sales in July is definitely a favorable development, it comes on the heels of two consecutive months of significant downward revisions to sales numbers for May and June, so we have to keep the latest report in perspective,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
    “Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that home sales are approaching a bottom, and that the newly enacted first-time home buyer tax credit (which went into effect as part of the housing stimulus bill on July 30) will help stimulate sales and provide crucial support for a market turnaround.”

    Commerce’s report indicated that the inventory of new homes for sale declined for a fifteenth consecutive month in July to 416,000 units, the lowest number since April of 2007. This reflects a 10.1 months’ supply at the current sales pace, down from 10.7 in June.

    On a regional basis, where estimates are subject to large month-to-month variations, sales activity was mixed in July. The Northeast posted a nearly 39 percent gain, the West posted a 9.9 percent gain, the Midwest posted an 8.2 percent decline and the South posted a 2.5 percent decline. Every region registered declines in the number of new homes for sale in July.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Houston & Washington Texas
    Posts
    12,259

    Default Re: Some good news from NAHB

    Ted

    This thing will work itself out, as your link mentioned inventories are being reduced. I know some very smart tract builders who got out a couple of years ago and are now getting back in, buying land and lots at low (if not distressed) prices.

    I find that much of what I'm doing today is really for product that will be ready 2009-2010.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    4,894

    Default Re: Some good news from NAHB

    Allan,

    I agree, it will all work itself out in time, although it never feels that way when times are bad. It seams as if it is doomed for good, we forget how everything goes in cycles.

    What I find interesting is that talk about what the housing market product will do when things do begin to come back. I have heard that the 3-4000sf McMansion is gone for good- they baby boomer's created that product, and now that they are all retiring they will no longer need these homes and seek smaller, better quality housing. This will leave a surplus of the McMansion, and create a demand for new smaller housing. Interesting, I guess we will wait and see.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Houston & Washington Texas
    Posts
    12,259

    Default Re: Some good news from NAHB

    Quote Originally Posted by Ted S. View Post
    What I find interesting is that talk about what the housing market product will do when things do begin to come back. I have heard that the 3-4000sf McMansion is gone for good- they baby boomer's created that product, and now that they are all retiring they will no longer need these homes and seek smaller, better quality housing. This will leave a surplus of the McMansion, and create a demand for new smaller housing. Interesting, I guess we will wait and see.
    Ted

    What you are saying may be right, certainly seems logical. I build many of my houses for empty nester baby-boomer types, so I can sort of identify what those buyers are looking for because typically they want exactly the same thing I would want in a house.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    4,894

    Default Re: Some good news from NAHB

    More good news:

    Builder Confidence Rises In September

    September 16, 2008 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose for the first time in seven months this September, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI gained two points to 18, rising from its record low of the previous two months.

    “Builders have several reasons to be more optimistic at this time,” noted NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “Many are sensing that home sales are nearing a turning point with the support of the newly enacted first-time home buyer tax credit. Meanwhile, with the government’s explicit backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now assured, this should help keep mortgage rates at very favorable levels going forward.”

    Following the Treasury Department’s announcement that it was placing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship last week, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate conforming home mortgages declined by nearly half a percentage point, falling to below 6 percent for the first time in several months. Market responses to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing and the purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America have put additional downward pressure on prime conforming mortgage rates.

    “Nearly half of the builders in our September survey indicated that they expect to see a positive impact from the tax credit in their market areas,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Of those respondents, 20 percent said their market has already experienced some of this effect. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has risen and more households are saying that now is a good time to buy a home. All of these factors, along with the recent downward movements in mortgage rates, suggest that new-home sales will be stabilizing in the final quarter of the year.”

    Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

    All three of the HMI’s component indexes registered gains in September. The indexes gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers were each up a single point, to 17 and 14, respectively. Meanwhile, the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months rose by six points, to 30 – which was four points higher than its year-ago level.

    All regions also posted some degree of improvement in the September HMI, with the Midwest, South and West each up two points, to 15, 22 and 12, respectively, and the Northeast posting a six-point gain to 22.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts